EURUSD continues lower closer towards our target of 1.2050
on January 15, 2021 at 4:52 pm
We have warned bulls after the break of the bullish channel that was combined with a bearish RSI divergence. Since then we were talking about a pull back towards at least the 38% Fibonacci retracement level. Green lines - bullish channel brokenRed lines - bearish divergence EURUSD is approaching our first target at 1.2050 and the 38% Fibonacci level. Trend is bearish in the short-term as price has started making lower lows and lower highs. A first bounce could come from this Fibonacci support at 1.2050 but bulls need to be very cautious. Red line - bearish divergenceGreen line - support trend line Taking a look at the bigger picture in EURUSD bulls should be very cautious as we could be at the early stages of a bigger pull back towards the 38% Fibonacci retracement of the longer-term upward move from 1.06. Support by the long-term upward sloping green trend line is at 1.1940. The 38% Fibonacci retracement is at 1.1685. Of course it is too early to talk about such a big pull back, but the chances of this happening are increasing as price falls.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
Gold price breaks below the Kumo (cloud) support
on January 15, 2021 at 4:45 pm
Gold price is trading below $1,840. Gold price is breaking out and below the Daily Kumo and this is a bearish sign. The end of the week finds Gold price near its lowest levels and this is not a good sign for next week. Gold price remains vulnerable to a move towards $1,800-$1,750. Gold price has resistance the upper cloud boundary at $1,865. We expect today's price action to be followed by more downside over the next couple of weeks with Gold pushing below $1,750. Only if bulls recapture the cloud resistance we can discard the bearish view. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
Bullish wedge pattern about to break in USDCAD
on January 15, 2021 at 4:37 pm
USDCAD remains in a bearish trend making lower lows and lower highs. However we need to warn bears that all this could soon end and we might see a strong upward reversal. We observe two important signs that must not be ignored. Red lines - bullish wedgeBlue line -bullish divergence USDCAD has formed a downward sloping wedge pattern. Resistance is at the upper wedge boundary at 1.2735. A break above this level would be the first bullish signal after a long time. This could be the start of a reversal and a strong bounce towards 1.30-1.33. The RSI is also providing a warning to bears. The RSI is not making lower lows. Bulls can expect a bullish start of the year for USDCAD. Bears need to be very cautious as trend my soon change.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
EUR/USD: Dollar may slowly regain losses as Biden promises to flood economy with money
on January 15, 2021 at 3:32 pm
Investors seem to have put the USD bearish trend on pause. The greenback is showing its biggest weekly gain since November last year, and its recent recovery from three-year lows calls into question the prospects of its weakening in 2021. "While the baseline scenario continues to be a significant acceleration in the global economy, which has historically been positive for most currencies against the US dollar, there is now reason to discuss whether the dollar will be as weak as many expect," said strategists at Westpac. US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said on Thursday that the regulator remains committed to an ultra-soft monetary policy. Powell's promise to print money and keep interest rates low for as long as necessary has sent the dollar tumbling for a while. However, the greenback recovered quite quickly after the recently elected US President Joe Biden presented a draft of measures to support the national economy affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. The measures announced include $415 billion to fight the coronavirus and vaccinate the population, about $1 trillion in direct assistance to households, and $440 billion for small businesses and communities most affected by the pandemic. "We must act and act now," said President-elect Joe Biden. Investors were happy about the possible adoption of a stimulus package worth $1.9 trillion, but US stocks retreated amid the announcement of details of how the new US administration intends to stimulate the national economy. The main problem, experts say, is that it will be difficult for Democrats to take all measures given the fragile majority in both houses of Congress. "The reality is that while Democrats have now increased their power by winning Georgia's runoff last week, that power has its limits, and details of the fiscal stimulus package unveiled on Thursday suggest the overall size will be cut before it will receive the support needed to get through the Senate," said MUFG. Market sentiment took a turn for the worse when Joe Biden hinted at a tax hike, saying that everyone should pay their fair share. The falling stocks boosted demand for the safe dollar. "Let's see how quickly the market will return to positive dynamics and what will happen after the inauguration of Joe Biden, because protest demonstrations are scheduled in the United States this weekend. There is a risk of serious riots - both on these days and on the day of the inauguration itself on January 20. Although the downward trend in USD is still strong, we are not ready to return to it tactically," Saxo Bank said. The greenback will continue to rise on Friday. It is currently trading more than 0.5% higher at 90.7 points. Risk appetite has been worsened by reports that the outgoing Trump administration has increased tensions with China by including nine Chinese companies, including smartphone maker Xiaomi and the airline company Comac, on the banned list of American investors. The single European currency is poised to close its worst week since late October as the outlook for the region leaves a lot to be desired. France has imposed a curfew until 6 pm almost throughout the country. Germany, like individual regions of Spain, is considering the possibility of tightening quarantine restrictions. In Italy, former Prime Minister Matteo Renzi sparked a coalition crisis. On Friday, the main currency pair reached its lowest levels since the beginning of the year. "EUR / USD remains under pressure as the news is dominated by the slow roll-out of the EU vaccination program and political issues in Italy. The pair broke through key support around 1.2130, which quickly drew attention to a potential test of key support around 1.2060," strategists at TD Securities noted. "Apparently, at this stage, market participants focused on negative developments related to the euro. The minutes of the ECB meeting published yesterday reflected the discussion of the rate of the single currency, which only intensifies the pessimism caused by political problems in Italy and the COVID-19 pandemic. The EUR/USD pair needs a clean breakout of 1.2100 or 1.2220 in order to determine the direction," OCBC Bank specialists said.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
January 15, 2021 : EUR/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.
on January 15, 2021 at 2:58 pm
The EURUSD pair was trapped below the previous key-level (1.2000) until bullish breakout occured to the upside recently in December. Further quick bullish advancement was expressed towards 1.2150 just as expected after failing to find sufficient bearish pressure at retesting of the backside of the broken channel around 1.1970-1.2000 which corresponds roughly to Fibonacci Level of 0%. Recently, the pair looked overbought while approaching the price levels of 1.2250 (138% Fibonacci Level). That's why, conservative traders were advised to look either for SELL Positions around the previous price levels at 1.2330 (150% Fibonacci Level) in the previous article. Currently, Bearish closure and persistence below 1.2160 then 1.2000 is needed to abort the ongoing bullish momentum to pursue bearish movement at least towards 1.1860 and 1.1770. This would confirm the ongoing bearish Head and Shoulders Pattern by breaking below the pattern neckline around 1.2160. On the other hand, Conservative traders should look for price action around the price zone around 1.2000-1.1975. This price zone stands as a Demand Zone which can offer bullish SUPPORT for the EURUSD.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
January 15, 2021 : GBP/USD Intraday technical analysis and trade recommendations.
on January 15, 2021 at 2:57 pm
In December, the price levels of (1.3380-1.3400) have prevented further bullish movement for a few weeks.Bearish target was projected towards 1.3300. However, the pair has failed to pursue towards lower targets. Instead, a bullish spike was expressed towards 1.3480-1.3500 where the upper limit of the depicted movement channel has previously provided temporary bearish pressure on the pair. Shortly after, another bullish spike has recently been demonstrated towards 1.3600 where the upper limit applied considerable bearish rejection again.Recently, the GBPUSD pair looked overbought while consolidating above the key-level of 1.3400. As expected, bearish reversal was recently initiated around 1.3600. A quick bearish decline was demonstrated towards 1.3200. However, the pair has failed to maintain bearish decline below 1.3200 in the previous attempt. Instead, bullish persistence above 1.3400 invalidated the bearish scenario for the short-term. Another temporary bullish movement is being expressed to test the previous WEEKLY High around 1.3700 and probably towards 1.3770 where bearish rejection and a possible SELL Entry are suggested. Intermediate-term outlook can turn into bearish if only the EUR/USD pair could break below and maintain movement below 1.3400. If so, a quick bearish decline initially towards 1.3200-1.3150.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
January 15, 2021 : EUR/USD daily technical review and trade recommendations.
on January 15, 2021 at 2:56 pm
By the end of November, Signs of BUYING Pressure have been initiated around the depicted price zone of 1.1800-1.1840. Shortly after, the EUR/USD pair has demonstrated a quick upside movement.The pair has targeted the price levels around 1.1990 initially which exerted considerable bearish pressure bringing the pair back towards 1.1920 which constituted a temporary KEY-Zone for the EUR/USD pair. That's why, another episode of upside movement was expressed towards 1.2160 where a false breakout above the price level of 1.2200 was regarded as a considerable bearish reversal signal. Three weeks ago, a short-term reversal pattern has been demonstrated around 1.2265. Intraday downside retracement to the downside was expected to occur. However, the EUR/USD pair has failed to pursue towards lower price levels. Instead, the pair has spiked above the depicted Weekly HIGH around 1.2270 before the current bearish rejection was initiated around 1.2350. Bearish closure below the mentioned price zone of 1.2250 - 1.2200 enabled a quick bearish decline towards 1.2170 then 1.2150 which correspond to a previous congestion zone as well as a prominent key-zone. Persistence below the price level of 1.2170 should turn the intermediate outlook for the pair into bearish and enhance further downside decline towards 1.2080 and probably 1.2040. Trade Recommendations :- SELL Positions that were suggested around the price levels of 1.2300 are already running in profits. Stop Loss should be lowered to 1.2230 to secure more profits while Next Target levels should be projected towards 1.2080 and 1.2040.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
Dollar rebound may not be stopped
on January 15, 2021 at 2:45 pm
Traders who took many short dollar positions late last year are now biting their elbows. As capital inflows to the United States increase, the demand for the U.S. dollar may grow. The dollar will be bought on recovery, as it was bought last year in panic due to the pandemic. For investors, the dollar has long been the main component of a safe strategy. Now it can be useful in the context of economic recovery. Many analysts predict that the U.S. economy will end the current year with more significant results than the past one. As soon as there are real signs of a recovery in the U.S. labor market and increased spending, market players are likely to rush to take advantage of this progress. With strong growth in the US economy, investors will begin to abandon foreign stocks in favor of American ones. To do this, they will need dollars. It is these capital flows that are expected to contribute to the growth of the greenback The economic recovery is having an impact on real returns. After the turmoil in Washington last week, nominal yields jumped. Meanwhile, core inflation should remain stable, as opposed to growth embedded in profitability. This could help to increase the real profitability and attractiveness of the U.S. in comparison with markets that have negative returns. In addition, it encourages players to buy U.S. Treasury and corporate bonds, rather than buying local securities. For the dollar, this is a direct path to the status of the main currency in the framework of the carry trade. "Japanese investors who sold foreign bonds two weeks in a row for the first time since May, could earn by hedging the yield of 10-year bonds in yen at the level of 64 bp, providing an increase of 60 bp compared to domestic 10-year Japanese government securities," wrote strategists at Societe Generale on Thursday. However, there is no question of a quick way up for the dollar. Given the rapid influx of stimulus, which Joe Biden officially announced on Thursday, the U.S. currency may first weaken its position. The economic recovery will force investors to abandon the dollar in favor of risky assets, such as EM sector currencies. It's unlikely to last long. Another jump in yields and the potential leadership of US securities will bring investors back to the U.S. In the near future, the ratio to the dollar should be revised. According to analysts, the rebound of the dollar will continue this year. Recall that, after the dollar went into a prolonged fall last year, traders began to actively open short positions. The USD index is currently trading at its lowest levels since April 2018. A recent survey of Bank of America clients showed that the short sale of currency became the most popular transaction after long positions in technology stocks. At the same time, the CFTC report reflected the strongest "bearish" positioning for the dollar in 10 years. At present the dollar looks oversold, moreover, the technical picture indicates that the dollar is about to turn up after a multi-month decline. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
BTC analysis for January 15,.2021 - Downside movemetn on the way with the objectives at $33.000 and $28.500
on January 15, 2021 at 2:24 pm
Further Development Analyzing the current trading chart of BTC, I found that there is rejection of the key pivot resistance at $39,300 and that we might see downside movement towards $33,000 and $28,515. Watch for selling opportunities on the rallies with the targets at $33,000 and $28,515. Key resistance is sett at $39,600. Additionally, there is the bear cross on Stochastic oscillator, which is sign for the further downside movement.The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com
Bitcoin to trade at $ 40,000?
on January 15, 2021 at 2:15 pm
At the time of writing, the rate of BTC / USD has dropped slightly to $ 37,583. But a couple of days ago, Bitcoin was trying to resume its bullish momentum, however, the movement was very weak as compared to its previous rallies. Despite that, analysts believe that it will still grow, albeit very cautiously. Some even suggest that by the end of this day, BTC will rise to $ 42,000, which is a very bold forecast. In 2017, Bitcoin already reached such a high level, but following it was a large-scale correction. Now, the climb towards this value is clearly speeding up, which is toning up investors. According to CoinMarketCap, over the past 24 hours, the cost of bitcoin has risen to $ 39,966, but has fallen very quickly. The lowest rate yesterday was $ 37,653 not $ 31,000, which means that market participants are very actively supporting the cryptocurrency, even despite the massive liquidation this week. Most likely, Bitcoin will not drop sharply even amid expectations of massive economic stimulus. Just yesterday, President-elect Joe Biden announced his plans of introducing a $ 2 trillion-worth of incentives to the United States. The package provides $ 2,000 direct payments to Americans, which will help accelerate inflation. Accordingly, such will increase demand for alternative assets such as Bitcoin. To add to that, the European Central Bank called on other countries to regulate bitcoins, since they are speculative assets. Therefore, Dan Morehead, CEO of Pantera Capital, is confident that by August 2021, bitcoin will cost at least $ 115,000. He believes that the launch of the digital yuan and other events in the digital world will have a favorable effect on the cryptocurrency market. The material has been provided by InstaForex Company - www.instaforex.com